A report in The Times of India said that several nuclear powers are possibly planning to conduct nuclear test explosions, and India and Pakistan may seek any opportunity to test another nuclear device, based on information from the ‘Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’, an organisation that has been studying nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies since 1945.
Three major nuclear powers, the US, Russia, and China, have all built new facilities and tunnels at their nuclear test sites in recent years, according to satellite images obtained by CNN.
According to Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, recent satellite imagery reveals the construction of new tunnels beneath mountains, the establishment of fresh roads and storage facilities, and a notable rise in vehicle activity entering and exiting the sites over the past three to five years.
Experts suggest that there is a possibility of the United States, Russia, and China resuming nuclear test explosions.
If these countries resume testing, other nuclear powers like India and Pakistan are likely to follow suit to enhance the blast yields of their nuclear arsenals and it would present a significant opportunity for aspiring nuclear countries like Iran.
Nuclear testing moratoriums
India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974 and a second series of nuclear tests in May 1998, with an announcement of a moratorium on further testing. Meanwhile, Pakistan conducted its first and only series of nuclear tests in May 1998.
Russia, the US, and China announced moratoriums on nuclear testing in 1990, 1992, and 1996, respectively.
Another nuclear-armed nation, North Korea, conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017 before announcing a moratorium on further testing in 2018.
Global nuclear test ban treaty
In 1996, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) to ban nuclear weapons testing. Out of 187 countries that have signed the treaty, 174 have ratified it. However, countries like the US, China, and Israel have not ratified it.
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Additionally, countries such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea have not signed the treaty at all.
Furthermore, in November 2023, Russia officially withdrew from the treaty, escalating tensions surrounding nuclear testing.
The purpose of nuclear testing
Nuclear-tipped missiles and bombs are indeed classified as nuclear delivery vehicles, similar to bombers and submarines. The warhead itself is typically classified as the nuclear weapon or device, and many countries have successfully developed and deployed these nuclear devices across various delivery platforms.
Following the announcement of self-imposed moratoriums on nuclear testing, these nuclear-armed nations have focused on upgrading their atomic weapons to achieve slightly higher blast yields and there has been a continuous effort to modernise delivery vehicles.
However, they have not been actively designing new weapons with significantly higher blast yields.
They design and conduct tests if they would like to increase the blast yields of their arsenals.
Potential nuclear testing by India and Pakistan
In many occasions, Pakistan has warned India that it would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if India were to initiate even a conventional war against Pakistan. If intelligence reports indicate that one country is preparing for nuclear testing, it is likely that another country would also prepare for testing.
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Given that Pakistan has conducted only one series of nuclear tests, it may seek a favourable opportunity to conduct further tests while avoiding international pressure and sanctions.
Indian scientists told TOI that India can lift the moratorium anytime if the situation demands.
Conclusion
If one country among the rivals such as Russia, China, and the United States starts nuclear testing, it could lead to the other two countries following suit.
Furthermore, countries like India and Pakistan may view it as an opportunity to enhance their nuclear arsenals, while countries like Iran may see it as a chance to emerge as nuclear powers.
