Iran on April 6 has once again threatened retaliation for the airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria, allegedly conducted by Israel, with Iran’s army chief saying his country’s enemies will regret the killings.
Iran’s army chief, Mohammad Bagheri, stated: “Iran’s response will be carried out at the right time, with the necessary precision and planning, and with maximum damage to the enemy so that they regret their action.”
On April 1, an airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus killed 7 members belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including 2 generals.
While Iran accused Israel of responsibility for the strike, Israeli officials have not yet commented on this.
Iran’s defense minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, also stated: “The decision to take revenge on Israel has been made. We will deal them a powerful blow; it will be implemented.”
Iran has also warned the US not to interfere in the conflict to avoid harm to the country.
Mohammad Jamshidi, deputy chief of staff for political affairs to Iran’s president, stated on X: “In a written message, the Islamic Republic of Iran warns US leadership not to get dragged into Netanyahu’s trap for the US: Stay away so you won’t get hurt.”
“In response, the US asked Iran not to target American facilities,” he added.
US officials haven’t commented on this alleged message Iran had sent yet.
While the US deployed its carrier battle groups a few months ago to deter Iran and Arab countries from interfering in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the country’s response to Iran’s potential attack is uncertain.
The US officials strongly believe that Iran’s retaliation is ‘inevitable’ and predict that Iran could attack next week before the end of Ramzan.
Military experts predict that Iran could attack military targets instead of civilian targets in Israel using long-range cruise missiles or swarms of drones.
Both US and Israeli military forces are on high alert to defend against potential attacks by the IRGC, and Israel cancelled leaves for military personnel.
Israel’s government also instructed hospitals to prepare for a mass casualty event and reopened bomb shelters across the country to protect its people from potential attacks.
Not full-scale war, but a limited-scale conflict
Former US defense secretary Mark Esper, in an interview on CNN, predicted that Iran will retaliate, but on a limited scale, to avoid a full-scale war in the Middle East.
Given that Israel and Iran are not bordering countries, Iran would need to be heavily dependent on long-range cruise or ballistic missiles and swarm drones to strike Israel. The country would also need to continually move its forces to Israel’s border with Syria to sustain a full-scale war.
However, this is not a viable option for Iran due to limited logistic support, as there are two countries, Iraq and Syria, between them.
Furthermore, a full-scale war could lead to US interference and potential nuclear use by Israel if the conflict escalates.
Military capabilities: Israel vs Iran
While Iran is known to possess a massive ballistic missile force and cheaper drones in significant numbers, Israel has cutting-edge air defence and ballistic missile defence systems proven effective against ballistic missiles fired by Houthi militants in the last few months.
The Israeli air force is expected to play a crucial role in disrupting Iran’s logistic support by conducting precision strikes in the event of a potential full-scale war.
Conclusion
Amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, both the US and Israel have kept their military forces on high alert. While an Iranian attack on Israel is believed to be inevitable, Iran is likely to avoid a full-scale war due to limited logistic support, Israel being a nuclear-armed nation and the potential interference of the United States.
